On the topic of food....
A looming shortage of phosphate threatens global
food security
The world faces a dangerous shortage of phosphate, which could
slash global crop yields and send food prices soaring within a
generation if nothing is done to control its use in chemical
fertilisers, according to two of Australia’s leading sustainability
researchers.
The use of phosphate rock as a fertiliser has significantly boosted
crop yields in the past 50 years and it will become increasingly
important as the world’s population grows and living standards
rise.
But without action and at current increasing rates of consumption,
global supplies of phosphate will likely peak this century,
possibly in as little as 20 years, say University of Technology,
Sydney researchers at the Institute for
Sustainable Futures, Dr Dana Cordell and Professor Stuart
White.
The looming shortage has been described by some experts as the next
peak oil or the new “inconvenient truth”, a reference to former US
Vice President Al Gore’s 2006 documentary about climate change.
Dr Cordell and Professor White, who last year won a prestigious Eureka Prize for
Environmental Research for their phosphate work, warn there is
virtually no management of phosphate supplies by any national or
international agency to ensure their long-term availability.
Inefficient farming practises and food waste, among other things,
have exacerbated the pressure on existing supplies, they say.
Australia, which is the fifth-largest consumer of phosphate
fertiliser in the world, is in a particularly precarious position,
says Dr Cordell: it is completely addicted to phosphate but imports
about half of its supply from overseas.
“While we have naturally phosphorus-deficient soils, the food we
grow and export is phosphorus-intensive and feeds about 60 to 70
million people, mostly in the Asia Pacific region,” she says. “What
that means is we need a lot of phosphorus. Even if we recycle 100
per cent of it, it would nowhere near meet our demand.
“We might need to rethink the profiles of our agriculture and
export industries in the future, which is not an easy thing to
do.”
Phosphorus is an element found in the earth’s crust and in all
living things. It is needed for plant growth and basic human
functions – it’s in human cell walls and helps transport energy to
the brain. Without it, animals can’t be fed, food can’t be produced
and life on earth can’t survive.
“Phosphorus is an essential element, an essential building
block for all life,” says Dr Cordell.
“A world without phosphorus is like a world without oxygen, or
carbon or water – life wouldn’t exist as we know it.”
The two researchers began looking at global phosphorus stocks in
2005 and soon realised there was no co-ordinated management of
them. In 2008, they pulled together a small group of researchers
with an interest in phosphorus to form the Global
Phosphorus Research Initiative (GPRI).
The standard of the group's science and the urgency of its concerns
prompted Nobel Prize laureate Professor Paul Crutzen, who first
drew the world's attention to ozone depletion, to become the GPRI's
first ambassador.
Made up of researchers from Australia, Sweden, Canada and the
Netherlands, the GPRI is researching the key issues underpinning
the rapid depletion of phosphorus stocks as well as establishing
sustainable phosphorus management guidelines.
These include controlling phosphate use, says Professor White.
“Improving crop productivity with less phosphorus input, helping
people to change their diets and produce less food waste, and
developing recycling initiatives to recover and reuse phosphorus
will all reduce the risks associated with a dependence on
increasing imports,” he says.
An estimated 80 per cent of the phosphorus mined for food
production is wasted throughout the food production and consumption
chain.
The world got a glimpse of how serious a major phosphate shortage
could be in 2008 when increased agricultural demand and limited
supplies of phosphate rock sent the price soaring 800 per cent to a
peak of $US430 a tonne. The average US dollar price that year was
four times that of 2004. Phosphate is now trading at about
$US185 a tonne but that is still well above the pre-peak level of
$US50 a tonne.
Dr Cordell and Professor White are confidant the looming shortage
can be solved. Solutions include recovering phosphorus from all
organic sources such as human excrement, food waste, crop waste,
manure and possibly even algae. Phosphorus can also be used much
more efficiently, for example, ensuring it is not lost along the
way from mine to field through leaks and spillages. Changes in
human diet would also make a difference – less meat and more fruit,
vegetables and grains.
“The very actions that we would take to improve agriculture, change
dietary habits, improve soils, will positively impact the
phosphorus issue,” says Professor White. “But they will also
improve agricultural water use, greenhouse gas emissions – every
single one of those is correlated. In almost every circumstance,
you do something for one, you improve the other.”
*****
Shared this on my fb last night.
Apparently we have been flushing phosphurus into the oceans
without realising what it would mean for us next time.
And when you think about it, this is far far scarier than
nuclear proliferation, FT in SG, or even global warming.
And yet nobody has taken notice yet.
Thing is, many ppl in the world does not care a hoot as long as
they receive food on their table...
Same goes for energy matters as well... The internet is burning
energy like no body business... The countless amount of electricity
being used to cool servers thruout the world is atonishing... Not
sure if I have the data on hand...
